How responsive is organic carbon in soil to changes in temperature and moisture? A new study published in Nature Communications provides critical insights, revealing that soil carbon in tropical and subtropical regions is far more sensitive to temperature increases than previously understood.

The research was conducted by scientists from MARUM—Center for Marine Environmental Sciences at the University of Bremen—and the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven.

Soils are among the largest carbon reservoirs on Earth, storing more than twice the carbon found in the atmosphere. This makes their behavior a key factor in regulating global carbon dioxide (COâ‚‚) levels. As climate change continues to reshape temperature and precipitation patterns, understanding how soil carbon responds becomes increasingly important.

While much attention has focused on carbon release from melting permafrost, this new study shifts the spotlight to subtropical and tropical soils, which also hold vast amounts of organic carbon. Until now, it remained unclear whether temperature or hydrological changes played a larger role in triggering carbon release in these regions.

"Microbes responsible for breaking down organic matter are more active in warm and moist environments, so carbon in tropical soils is highly responsive to climatic changes," said lead author Dr. Vera Meyer from MARUM. "However, previous studies have been divided on whether temperature or moisture is the primary driver."

To investigate the long-term dynamics, the research team employed a novel approach: rather than analyzing soil samples directly, they examined the age of organic matter transported by the Nile River and deposited in marine sediments near its mouth. The Nile basin covers a vast area stretching across subtropical and tropical northeastern Africa, making it ideal for studying large-scale environmental processes.

The sediment core samples, which span the last 18,000 years, offer a rare opportunity to track how soil carbon dynamics responded to past climate changes, particularly the post-glacial warming period.

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"The age of this material reflects how long it remained in soil before being eroded and how long it traveled in the river," explained Dr. Enno Schefuß of MARUM. "By analyzing these ages, we gain insights into how quickly organic matter decomposed under different climatic conditions."

Surprisingly, the study found that while changes in rainfall and river runoff had only a minor influence, temperature had a pronounced effect on the age of soil-derived carbon. As temperatures rose after the last ice age, the decomposition of organic matter accelerated far more than anticipated.

"The warming triggered a significant increase in microbial activity, leading to faster breakdown of organic material and a much greater release of COâ‚‚ than current carbon cycle models predict," said co-author Dr. Peter Köhler of AWI Bremerhaven. "This suggests we’ve been underestimating how sensitive soil carbon is to rising temperatures."

The findings imply that soils in warm climates may release more COâ‚‚ under future warming scenarios than previously thought, creating a feedback loop that could further accelerate climate change.

With this new understanding, scientists emphasize the need to revise global climate models to account for the heightened sensitivity of soil carbon, especially in tropical regions. The study also highlights the importance of incorporating long-term geological data into climate predictions to better anticipate the full extent of carbon cycle feedbacks.